Vietnam's Agri-Food Sector and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

In 1986, Vietnam embarked on a gradualist approach to market reform and steadily pursued trade agreements under a strategy of export-led growth. The country has since emerged as one of Asia's dynamic economies and a growing market for agri-food trade. The proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is Vietnam's next step toward increased economic integration. This report provides an overview of Vietnam's agri-food sector and an analysis of its trade with potential TPP partners. Examination of Vietnam's trade and tariff structure suggests modest agricul-tural trade growth potential from the proposed TPP agreement. Vietnam's current preferential trade agreements (PTAs) with many of the negotiating TPP countries already provide low or duty-free rates. Major Vietnamese exports, such as coffee and natural rubber, are not expected to gain from an agreement. Nevertheless, even though many of Vietnam's PTAs overlap with potential TPP partners, TPP could provide new opportunities where those agreements did not liberalize market access. Rice and smaller export sectors (cassava starch, pepper, processed foods, honey) could grow. For U.S. agricultural exporters, Vietnam's already low tariff rates on animal feed and commodities for industrial inputs do not provide much growth opportunity for its top products; however trade liberalization could lead to increased U.S. markets for consumer-oriented exports including meats, dairy products, fruits, and other high-value U.S. food products. Additional economic growth generated by an agreement would also increase Vietnam's import demand.