Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Computational Modeling

Thisvolume deals with the pressing issue of uncertainty in archaeological modeling. Detecting where and when uncertainty is introduced to the modeling process iscritical, as are strategies for minimizing, reconciling, or accommodating suchuncertainty. Included chapters provide unique perspectives on uncertainty inarchaeological modeling, ranging in both theoretical and methodologicalorientation. The strengths and weaknesses of various identification andmitigation techniques are discussed, in particular sensitivity analysis. Thechapters demonstrate that for archaeological modeling purposes, there is noquick fix for uncertainty; indeed, each archaeological model requires intensiveconsideration of uncertainty and specific applications for calibration andvalidation. As very few such techniques have been problematized in a systematicmanner or published in the archaeological literature, this volume aims toprovide guidance and direction to other modelers in the field by distillingsome basic principles for model testing derived from insight gathered in thecase studies presented. Additionally, model applications and their attendantuncertainties are presented from distinct spatio-temporal contexts and willappeal to a broad range of archaeological modelers. This volume will also be ofinterest to non-modeling archaeologists, as consideration of uncertainty wheninterpreting the archaeological record is also a vital concern for thedevelopment of non-formal (or implicit) models of human behavior in the past.