The Long-Wave Debate

If there is not enough evidence of long waves in economic variables, the meet- ing that spawned this book brought forth some evidence to show that at least interest in these phenomena manifests a wave-like form. It is exceptional for any economist, due to the periods involved, to participate in two upswin28 of interest. Much of what is said at the beginning of a period is usually forgotten by the end. The participants of the International Meeting on Long-Term Fluc- tuations in Economic Growth: Their Causes and Consequences (held in Weimar, GDR, 10-14 June 1985}, of which this volume is the Proceedings, were privileged to hear of one such exceptional case. In his welcoming speech, Professor Jiirgen Kuczynski recalled his research, of 51 years ago, on long waves in the prices of industrial goods in the years 1820-1933, when he said "Lange Wellen aber sind nicht zu finden" [Kuczynski, Da. s Problem der la. ngen Wellen und die Entwicklung der Industriewa. ren-Preise in den Ja. hren 1. 820-1. 933 {Philographischer Verlag, Basel}]."Since then," the speaker confessed, "I have come to acknowledge the existence of long waves, without being able to find a satisfactory explana- tion for them in my own or in other studies. " Professor Kuczynski stressed the necessity to develop a satisfactory theory for long waves, and then to establish which factors are important com- ponents of the general trend and which are not.