Simulating Chinese Gray Zone Coercion of Taiwan: Identifying Redlines and Escalation Pathways

This paper shares the results of an exercise hosted by the RAND Corporation to explore the risk of escalation from Chinese activities in the gray zone to conventional war. The results showed an overall low risk of Taiwanese escalation because of Chinese military power and Chinese and U.S. constraints on Taiwan's decisionmaking. The exercise's U.S. team would consider escalation to military force only if Taiwan faced an existential threat.