Profiting from Uncertainty

In an environment of increasing technological and global instability, the risks of ignoring uncertainty are greater than ever. But so are the rewards of actively addressing it. Traditionally, managers have viewed uncertainty as an obstacle interfering with the company's existing plans. PROFITING FROM UNCERTAINTY shows the opposite to be true, that the unknown creates opportunity and that scenario based planning, options thinking and other approaches can actually be used to profit from the ambiguity. Dr. Paul Schoemaker, a worldwide authority on strategic decision making, goes beyond other gurus who simply project how the future might unfold to take a comprehensive approach that moves from external scenarios to key success factors to real options to implementation. Drawing on his work with companies in such diverse fields as biotechnology, financial services, utilities and online travel, Schoemaker shows how to 1) develop and analyse multiple industry scenarios, 2) craft nimble strategies, 3) implement them using an options approach and 4) make real time adjustments through dynamic monitoring.