Our Geopolitical Futures 2050

The theme for for this book is the evolution of the world order to 2050. The basic premise is that we are living at a time of geo-political transformation. The world order that has served us well since the Second World War is starting to feel a little dated. The institutions created after World War II no longer seem to serve adequately the problems we face. Not only are we facing a new type of problem, the geo-political balance is changing as the global economy evolves to reflect the impact of the newly developed information technologies.Much change in the world can be laid down to two factors - the re-structuring of the world economy and a changing climate. The re-structuring has been enabled by advances in technology in recent decades, allowing for the extension of global supply chains and new markets to be created. This has led to a shift in the balance of economic advantage away from Europe and North America, towards East and South Asia. These shifts have yet to fully play out and the study examined the pathways they could take in the next 30 years.A changing climate is also starting to have an impact upon the world order. Areas that have previously been inhospitable to human activity, such as the Arctic, are now starting to open up. Equally, areas in which human activity has been possible to date, such as the Sahel, are starting to become hostile to human activity. As the climate changes and has an impact upon human activity, issues such as migration and economic potential may come to the fore. We explored these issues through our thematic studies.Together, the seven lines of enquiry provide a coherent approach to future geo-politics that focuses on what we believe to be the significant trends to 2050.