Lessons from Rand's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security

Using examples from strategic planning, acquisition management, logistics, manpower, crisis decisionmaking, and organization and management, this report summarizes 20 years of RAND's uncertainty analysis for national security. Highlights include RAND's evolutionary view of how to deal with "deep uncertainty" and coping with surprise developments. The report is for readers concerned with strategy, planning, and related analytic methods.