Global Food Security

We judge that the overall risk of food insecurity in many countries of strategic importance to the United States will increase during the next 10 years because of production, transport, and market disruptions to local food availability, declining purchasing power, and counterproductive government policies. Demographic shifts and constraints on key inputs will compound this risk. In some countries, declining food security will almost certainly contribute to social disruptions or large-scale political instability or conflict, amplifying global concerns about the availability of food. We have moderate confidence in this judgment because we have a reliable and large body of reporting that correlates the effects of food supply disruptions, lower purchasing power, and poor policy choices with higher food insecurity. However, we are unable to pinpoint the thresholds and government actions that would result in these outcomes.