Environmental Futures Research

These papers, presented in a special session at the International Symposium on Society and Resource Management in June 2011, explore the transdisciplinary fi eld of futures research and its application to long-range environmental analysis, planning, and policy. Futures research began in the post-World War II era and has emerged as a mature research fi eld. Although the future of complex social-ecological systems cannot be predicted, these papers show how futures research can offer perspectives and methods that help researchers, decisionmakers, and other stakeholders explore alternative futures and gain environmental foresight-insight that can inform decisionmaking on environmental challenges. One author points out that the study of the future can be thought of as the study of change. He discusses three types of futures: the expected future, a range of plausible alternatives, and the preferred future, which decisionmakers can shape depending on their choice of action. An example of the methodology of futures research is provided in another chapter, which illustrates the use of scenario development. Another chapter identifi es global trends that could dramatically change social-ecological systems.