Energy Odyssey: The Hubbert Trojan Horse Scenario

In the Odyssey, by Homer, Odysseus goes on a long arduous journey after the Trojan War, which was a titanic military conflict. This is similar to our own arduous energy journey we must take. In science, though, there are also titanic conflicts regarding the proper analytical theory or the most appropriate strategy for future solutions similar to a Trojan War. This book is about just such a scientific debate over the concept of natural resource scarcity and its effects on economic growth also called the scarcity and growth debate. In general technology has been able to overcome scarcity for all of human kind for many centuries, but that does not mean the world does not face the prospect of scarcity, like for example how to reduce climate change and still be able to have a robust economy.

A more subtle scarcity and growth debate is presented here in regard to a geologist named M. King Hubbert, who predicted that petroleum production would follow a trend and eventually attain a peak in its supply followed by a downward projection, which could cause economic disruption. Most commentators have long since given up on Hubbert's theory and have declared that the scarcity and growth debate is over. But there is a Hubbert Trojan Horse in this debate that suggests in fact the debate is not over, and the possibility of a peak in supply is relevant. The different sides of the debate are brought out including how shale-oil plays a role in energy supplies.

First different energy types are compared with each other to show why petroleum is such a valuable energy resource and how petroleum energy resources can actually subsidize other lower grade energy resources. This is explained within the context of an energy dialectic. Then the mineral exploration process is explained to show why there can be a peak in production which also happened for whale-oil production and will happen, or may have already happened, for U.S. shale-oil production. The energy to economy relationship is also shown to see why oil is so valuable to our economy, although global climate change aspects are also addressed. Finally, different scenarios are forecast based on past economic declines such as that of the Roman Empire and the Soviet Union.

About the Author:

Douglas B. Reynolds is a Professor of Petroleum and Energy Economics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks. He was a practicing mechanical engineer specializing in energy technology before he became an energy economist. He taught economics in Kazakhstan after the fall of Soviet Union before he moved to Fairbanks, Alaska in 1997. Reynolds has analyzed petroleum taxes, natural gas pipelines and coal heating systems. He has lived, worked and taught around the world in such places as Mexico, Europe and Asia. He has written numerous academic treatises, journal articles and books on energy.