Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know

Includes

·       Introduction to Decision Making

·       Scenario Planning and Prediction Markets

·       Group Mechanics

·       Heuristics and Programmed Decisions

·       Probability and Base Rate Neglect



Decision Making Essentials You Always Wanted to Know prepares new managers and leaders to make those tough decisions they face by providing them with a tool box of decision analysis techniques to help them understand and analyze the decisions they make.

The chapters describe key techniques of decision analysis, including:

•      Cognitive biases and Prospect Theory

•      Heuristics

•      Probability and Expected Value

•      Bayes Theorem

•      Multi-attribute decision making, including the SMART, Elimination by Aspects, and Even Swaps methods

•      Game Theory

•      Prediction Markets

•      Brainstorming and Groupthink

•      Black Swan Events.



Each chapter provides clear examples of the decision making tools and includes practice examples to help train the reader in using these critical tools.