Anticipating Flashpoints with Russia: Patterns and Drivers

The authors sought to identify possible Russian flashpoints in Europe that could entangle the United States. Using quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical data on Russian disputes and conflicts, they identified the key drivers of such flashpoints. They derive planning implications for the United States and the U.S. Army in particular. This research was completed prior to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.