Boko Haram's Path to Victory

The Government of Nigeria's corruption and failure to address its people's grievances combined with the regional wave of Islamic extremism is fueling the rise of a strengthening insurgency called Boko Haram. Boko Haram's efforts have been steadily increasing in scale, though the majority of its actions are in Northeastern Nigeria. This paper takes a "Red Team" approach and proposes three lines of effort for a campaign plan that would give Boko Haram the ability to achieve its objective of separating the North of Nigeria from the South. The first line of effort is to secure funding by controlling the illicit trade network in the North and overhauling the organization so its structure can accomplish its goals. The second line of effort is to pursue methods to legitimize its struggle using democratic institutions. A significant part of this effort toward legitimization is a cohesive information operation. The final line of effort is to separate the government from its people by mutually supporting operations that destabilize the country while providing the services that satisfy the people's grievances. These lines of effort have a reasonable chance of success by capitalizing on the Government's history of mismanagement, heavy-handed responses to insurgency, and corruption. The result of this "most dangerous course of action" is a list of indicators that serve as a warning that Boko Haram is pursuing similar pursuits. The findings potentially help to create a stronger counter to the insurgent's strategy.